Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Not Ready For Primetime Progressives

Former president Barack Obama had waited a whole three months before uttering a first public statement. Definitely quicker than prior presidents but this transition was not normal. The firing back and forth between the outgoing and incoming administrations is unprecedented for focus on treason, law breaking and legitimacy. Obama's reappearance is not just his narcissism on display. This reflects the Left's empty bench.

We are in the invisible primary period for the 2020 election. It is disgusting to consider this never-ending grind of elections, but the first two years after any election have been named this as a feeling out period for politicians in their own party. There are revelations in how the immediate post-election actions played out, but also in the problem on the Left right now.

The Left has no ready for primetime players. From November 2016 to present, every Democrat had the opportunity to pick up a progressive standard and make a name for him or herself. Look at votes for cabinet members or even certifying the election results. There was obvious grandstanding by Liz Warren and Cory Booker. New senator Kamala Harris even made a fool of herself with some comments. The problem is that the broad and diverse Democrat coalition limits how a candidate can make a broad appeal. A generic white male like Joe Biden is untenable for a national campaign for the Left. It is questionable if a generic white female would be tenable (I think it is still).

As I said in this week's podcast, the hunt is for the beige Bernie. I have been calling for this since the Democrat primaries started. A beige Bernie or even just a younger Bernie would've clobbered Clinton so hard that the elite would have hitched its wagon to him or her and dumped Clinton for a second time. After all, what is Obama but a beige Bernie himself? This is the Left's task. Right now, the cupboard is bare.

Some of this is simply the Democrats being destroyed in statewide elections from 2009 to 2016. They lost continuously, and even in a supposed anti-incumbent cycle, they could not knock off some GOP governors in swing states. This hurts the pipeline. Failing to unseat Kasich, Snyder, and especially Scott in Florida were not just losses but losses that prevented figures from using a large state as a springboard for national attention.

The GOP found itself in a similar spot in 2012 because of the 2006 and 2008 wipeouts. Look at the swings in Ohio's gubernatorial elections to see how both parties were screwed by wipeout years (D 2006 wave, Tea party 2010 wave). The 2012 election posed another problem for the GOP because so many of its talented potentials were just elected in 2010. What remained were harder right or more niche right candidates. This is similar to what the Democrats face now. Those who are around now on their bench are the harder left characters from deep blue states.

One thing in these not ready characters' defense for not stepping into the spotlight is the 'stolen election' meme and the attempt to screw with recounts and the electoral college. This is all going to end someday, and one major factor is going to be the Democrats fiddling with the electoral college. Suddenly, 270 is not the needed count. This is dangerous. Because that was a goal, Democrats hoping to differentiate themselves could not be self-reflective or self-critical about what the Democrats did in 2016. None of them could take the Bernie campaign message and run with it because it would admit Clinton royally screwed up by not using it.

This is also the struggle within the Democrats right now as they look for the beige Bernie and minority Wall St puppet for 2020. How do they check off enough boxes with a candidate to pacify their votes and get them to show up in Novembers while keeping donors happy? Can Tulsi Gabbard? I doubt it considering the heat she is getting from the War Party advocates in the media and within her party. A fracture society yields fractured politics. Despite its powerful anti-white glue, even the Left has problems holding it together as society goes fractal.


peterike said...

I don't see bench strength as a problem for the Left. Leftist candidates can be formed out of whole cloth by the media. The vacuous non-entity Deep State puppet Obama was catapulted into awareness very easily. Similarly, another connected non-entity in France, Macron, is being blasted into orbit as the "outsider" candidate (lolz!).

Prog candidates don't need achievements, they don't need histories, they don't need records to run on. They just need to spout the right platitudes and suck up to the right power brokers, and it's done. The entire Giant Narrative Apparatchik Team kicks in overnight. (It's The GNAT! I just invented that.)

Within the electorate, while more people are getting woke to the charade, at the same time, others are more easily manipulated than ever before by status signalling campaigns. Anti-white-ism isn't being slowed down by Trump, it's being escalated like never before. The same rainbow coalition of anti-whites will be around in 2020.

There's a long way to go, but right now Trump is looking weak and ineffective, with his only response to weasel judges being an angry tweet. He isn't converting anyone to his side, and he's losing a lot of the people who got him there by caving every day.

Random Dude on the Internet said...

A counterpoint to peterike is that the media tried to invent several stories for Hillary and none of them wound up taking. Remember the cringeworthy "mi abuela" campaign? Remember Chillary Clinton? Remember how Hillary was supposed to be the most qualified candidate to have ever ran for the position? There were a few more, none of those ever stuck, and towards the end it was just "I'm not Donald Trump." Obama had a lot of things working for him that I'm not sure many other candidates have. Even Kamala Harris has some dirt on her. Sure, it will be considered racist to bring that dirt up but the media alone can't do all the work; the public is going to have to buy in. They bought in with Obama and didn't with Clinton.

Anonymous said...

Single, childless and nearing 40, I saw one real option

Kurt said...

This is something I've thought a lot about since the election. I liked the (overlooked) point you made about potential NAM candidates giving up on a political career before it begins because of the easy life they have in the private sector (you still need a born in the USA candidate). Politics would leave them exposed and I don't think very many will give up that lifetime sinecure for an uncertain political future. I think this particularly hurts them in finding a AA candidate.

Another point I'd make is, because of how fractured the base is, I don't think the Democrats can afford to have a 16 person field like the GOP had and just "audition" the spot so to speak. I think they risk alienating a portion of their base with that strategy if one groups favored candidate gets snubbed like Bernie. The DNC really need to be unified behind closed doors as well to push one (and only one) candidate.

I would think the ideal candidate is a first-gen Hispanic male, from hard-working immigrant stock and the cliché "came from nothing" story. Authentic enough to satisfy the underclass but with the credentials that liberal Boomers and SWPL's drool over. But would the AA voter be satisfied with that outcome after eight years of Obama?

The left can get the votes but they're sort of a headless monster.

Bumbling American said...

My left field thought on this is that they draft Oprah in 2020--Oprah would not only bring out an immense black vote but also steal away a lot of the white women who went for Trump. Like it or not, Trump opened the door for celebrity-as-authoritative-figure and Oprah could talk the talk on identity politics and mommy state without alienating as many people as Hillary. And of course when in office she would tack hard left.

peterike said...

Single, childless and nearing 40, I saw one real option

Well at least she chose to have white babies. Was there a Twitter storm about this calling her a terrible racist?

Anonymous said...

I didn't see anything about it anywhere other than CNN. If you see it elsewhere I'd like to read the comments.

Glengarry said...

I suppose the audition model is dead in both camps. The Republicans want to avoid another embarrassing winner, and the Democrats would expose how fragmented they actually are.

As we have seen, it's also a bit unclear whether the presidency still matters. Running presentable non-entities with clean slates might be the easiest option going forward.